Card pack statistics

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Statistics for card packs are a means of observing the rarity drop rates for cards from card packs, determining the opportunity cost of whether a player should continue to buy or not buy packs.

NB: For inclusion into this article, studies recording the rarity drops of card packs should have a reasonably large sample size and should have a citable reference from a reputable source.

Notes[edit | edit source]

  • All card packs guarantee a card of Rare or better rarity, among the 5 cards opened.[1] This means every card pack will guarantee having at least one card of Rare/Epic/Legendary rarity, or in other words, all 5 cards will never be all of Common rarity.[2]
  • All types of card pack have the same chances at rarities and golden cards.[3][4][5]
  • Opening 100 packs from an expansion set is roughly equivalent to obtaining 75% of the cards in that set.[6]
    • 100 packs is approximately (98/98) Commons, (64/72) Rares, (20/54) Epics, and (4.5/20) Legendaries (taking Mean Streets of Gadgetzan as the example set).[7]
  • According to the meta-study data in this article from 2015, the average number of packs to open before receiving another Legendary card is 18.
  • Cards are decided during the opening of packs, not during the moment of purchase.[8]
    • A case has been made for "predetermined rarities" when opening packs "again".[9] This probably means that Hearthstone uses some method of seeding that allows it to determine the rarities of a player's future cards well in advance, and snapshots of the seeding progress are cached periodically server-side as a back-up mechanism in case of a system or database failure, as is what happened in China.
  • A true Hearthstone pack opening simulator cannot be created unless the source code is revealed. (See Discussion)
    • However, using the data showing the probability percentages of opening cards belonging to each rarity type, a user-generated "pack opening" simulator can be created. Employing Monte Carlo repeated simulation of such pack openings can yield information as to the average number of "missing" and "extra" cards a player may receive from opening "n" packs. Information as to the amount of dust obtained from disenchanting all "extra" cards obtained from such packs can also be obtained.
    • Other simulators may base their simulation on guesses as to how individual cards are selected to be opened from the card pool. The raw data obtained from this article can be used to either debunk or verify such hypothetical user-generated pack opening simulators.
  • As seen with the Tri-class card opening bug on December 1, 2016, in which Tri-class cards had a higher than normal chance of appearing in packs, there appears to be a card-opening variable based on "Classes".
  • China is, by law, requiring games which feature random drops purchasable by money, to publicly release the drop rates/statistics for those random drops, effective May 1, 2017. This includes Hearthstone.[10]

Pity Timer[edit | edit source]

There is strong evidence that a "Pity Timer" exists, which defines a maximum number of packs that a player opens before guaranteeing the next Rare/Epic/Legendary card.[11][12] This Pity Timer counter is tracked individually for each store-bought expansion set, including Classic set.

  • An Epic card will be opened within 10 packs of the last opened Epic, for that set.[11]
  • A Legendary card will be opened within 40 packs of the last opened Legendary, for that set.

Expected dust value[edit | edit source]

According to the below meta-study's data tabulated under the "Golden cards" section, the average card pack has a disenchanting value of 98.25 Arcane Dust.[13][14] Each card has an average disenchanting value of 19.65 Arcane Dust.

An in-depth statistical analysis of how much dust you can expect to get from a given pack opening is available here: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3bqvxx/have_you_ever_wondered_how_much_value_you_can_get/

Meta-study[edit | edit source]

The following numbers combine data from several other studies on this page. Since the numbers provided by each study are relatively similar, this is mostly for the convenience of a single overview of the statistics, as well as improved accuracy in the rarer cases. The original studies can be found in later sections.

Currently included studies:

  • Steve Marinconz (June 2014)
  • E. R. Kjellgren (August 2014)
  • Amaz (February 2015)
  • HearthSim (August 2015)

This produces a total sample size of 27,868 card packs, describing 139,340 cards in total.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage of total 71.65% 22.84% 4.42% 1.10%
Count per 27,868 packs 99,836 31,821 6,152 1,531
Probability of at least 1 per pack 99.81% 72.64% 20.21% 5.37%

Golden cards[edit | edit source]

Golden card data gathered prior to The Grand Tournament show significant differences from that gathered after. For this reason the below information is currently taken solely from the most recent study: HearthSim (August 2015).

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.84% 22.87% 4.28% 1.01%
Regular 96.98% 70.36% 21.60% 4.08% 0.94%
Golden 3.02% 1.48% 1.27% 0.19% 0.07%
Count per 15,109 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 54,271 17,276 3,232 766
Regular 73,266 53,151 16,319 3,086 710
Golden 2,279 1,120 957 146 56

The following table describes the likelihood of getting at least 1 golden card in a given pack.

Common Rare Epic Legendary Any rarity
Probability of at least 1 golden per pack 7.4% 6.35% 0.95% 0.35% 15.084%

The following table describes the percentage of cards of each rarity which will be golden.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.06% 5.54% 4.52% 7.31%
Rough probability 1 in 48.5 1 in 18.1 1 in 22.1 1 in 13.7

Data[edit | edit source]

June 5, 2014: Steve Marinconz[edit | edit source]

On June 5th 2014 Steve Marinconz published the following results in an article on Kotaku.com.[15] The data was collected by aggregating the results of numerous card pack opening videos found online, with a total of 1,000 packs. The study used only videos filmed in the last two months.

As well as the chance of each card being of a specific rarity, Marinconz also calculated the probability of finding at least one card of each rarity in any given card pack.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage of total 71.30% 23.10% 4.30% 1.30%
Probability of at least 1 per pack 99.81% 73.11% 19.73% 6.33%
Count per 1,000 packs 3565 1155 215 65

Based upon this data, Marinconz' provided some interesting 'fun facts'. While these are based on the results of this single, relatively small study, the closeness of the study's results to those of other and larger studies suggests that the below information should still be relatively accurate, at least for the lower rarities.

  • The chances of getting a pack with any 5 legendary cards is one in a million
  • The chances of getting a pack with any 5 golden legendary cards is 1 in 3.2 billion
  • There's a 0.04% probability of getting 2 legendaries in a single pack
  • The probability of getting a pack with only one common card is about ~0.80%
  • There's a 16.26% probability of getting a pack with any golden card
  • Only 2.19% of common cards were golden, while 7.69% of legendaries were
  • The average $50 purchase of 40 packs will be worth about 3,600 Arcane Dust
  • The most common distribution was a '4100' - 4 commons and 1 rare - accounting for 61% of packs opened
  • The second most common distribution was a '3200' - 3 commons and 2 rares - accounting for 12.2% of packs opened

August 2014: E. R. Kjellgren[edit | edit source]

In August 2014 E. R. Kjellgren published an investigation into the rarities of cards found in card packs.[16] This was achieved by collecting user data from forums regarding the contents of 11,359 different card packs. The author notes that the investigation suffered from two main problems: the information collected was anonymous and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed; and the sample size, while adequate for the lower rarities, is still smaller than might be desired for the higher rarities. Kjellgren also divided rarities into golden and regular versions.

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.45% 22.76% 4.59% 1.19%
Regular 96.74% 69.98% 21.39% 4.28% 1.08%
Golden 3.26% 1.47% 1.37% 0.31% 0.11%
Count per 11,359 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 40,581 12,928 2,608 678
Regular 54,942 39,746 12,148 2,433 615
Golden 1,853 835 780 175 63

The data showed golden cards to be on average around 30 times less common than regular cards. However, the proportion of golden and regular versions varied substantially by rarity. The author also notes that the sample sizes for the higher golden rarities are too small to be considered conclusive.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.10% 6.42% 7.19% 10.24%
Rough probability 1 in 48 1 in 16 1 in 14 1 in 10

February 12, 2015: Amaz opens 400 GVG Packs[edit | edit source]

Sources: YouTube - Reddit

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 70.95% 23.10% 4.85% 1.10%
Regular 96.70% 69.50% 21.60% 4.60% 1.00%
Golden 3.30% 1.45% 1.50% 0.25% 0.10%
Count per 400 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 1,419 462 97 22
Regular 1,934 1,390 432 92 20
Golden 66 29 30 5 2

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.09% 6.94% 5.43% 9.09%
Rough probability 1 in 47.9 1 in 14.4 1 in 18.4 1 in 11.0

August 29, 2015: HearthSim compiles 15,109 TGT Packs[edit | edit source]

Sources: Reddit (initial post) - Reddit (update) - HearthSim - Raw CSV data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.84% 22.87% 4.28% 1.01%
Regular 96.98% 70.36% 21.60% 4.08% 0.94%
Golden 3.02% 1.48% 1.27% 0.19% 0.07%
Count per 15,109 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 54,271 17,276 3,232 766
Regular 73,266 53,151 16,319 3,086 710
Golden 2,279 1,120 957 146 56

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.06% 5.54% 4.52% 7.31%
Rough probability 1 in 48.5 1 in 18.1 1 in 22.1 1 in 13.7

April 28, 2016: Kripparian opens 713 Old Gods Packs[edit | edit source]

Sources: Youtube - Raw data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.16% 23.06% 4.71% 1.07%
Regular 96.69% 69.57% 21.74% 4.43% 0.95%
Golden 3.31% 1.60% 1.32% 0.28% 0.11%
Count per 713 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 2,537 822 168 38
Regular 3,447 2,480 775 158 34
Golden 118 57 47 10 4

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.25% 5.72% 5.95% 10.53%
Rough probability 1 in 44.4 1 in 17.5 1 in 16.8 1 in 9.5

April 28, 2016: Amaz opens 413 Old Gods Packs[edit | edit source]

Sources: Youtube - Raw data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 72.30% 22.38% 4.26% 1.07%
Regular 96.66% 70.65% 21.02% 4.02% 0.97%
Golden 3.34% 1.65% 1.36% 0.24% 0.10%
Count per 413 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 1,493 462 88 22
Regular 1,996 1,459 434 83 20
Golden 69 34 28 5 2

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.28% 6.06% 5.68% 9.09%
Rough probability 1 in 43.9 1 in 16.5 1 in 17.6 1 in 11.0

December 1, 2016: Kripparian opens 896 Gadgetzan Packs (Before Tri-Class Bug Hotfix)[edit | edit source]

Sources: YouTube - Raw data

  • The average card's dust value is 20.672 dust. The average pack's dust value is 103.36.
  • The "tri-class bug" was a time when, during the opening day for Mean Streets of Gadgetzan, tri-class cards had a higher chance of being opened from packs than other cards.[17]
  • It is unknown whether the YouTube video catches all of the pack openings, since the raw data here was collected from the original Twitch VOD, and there were a lot of segues in-between pack openings, so the creator of the YouTube video might not have caught them all.
  • Of the 896 packs, 6 were from the 3 promo quests.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.63% 23.06% 4.31% 1.00%
Regular 96.63% 69.98% 21.74% 4.04% 0.87%
Golden 3.37% 1.65% 1.32% 0.27% 0.13%
Count per 896 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 3,209 1,033 193 45
Regular 4,329 3,135 974 181 39
Golden 151 74 59 12 6

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.31% 5.71% 6.22% 13.33%
Rough probability 1 in 43.3 1 in 17.5 1 in 16.1 1 in 7.5

December 1-2, 2016: Kripparian opens 450 Gadgetzan Packs (After Tri-Class Bug Hotfix)[edit | edit source]

Sources: YouTube (end of video, first 300 packs) - Raw data

  • The average card's dust value is 21.00 dust. The average pack's dust value is 105.
  • YouTube video should include the first 300 of the pack openings. The last 150 pack openings were opened the day after the YouTube video was created.
  • Data was recorded by watching the original two Twitch VODs, not the YouTube video.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 70.93% 23.25% 4.71% 1.11%
Regular 96.58% 69.29% 21.78% 4.49% 1.02%
Golden 3.42% 1.64% 1.47% 0.22% 0.09%
Count per 450 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 1,596 523 106 25
Regular 2,173 1,559 490 101 23
Golden 77 37 33 5 2

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.32% 6.31% 4.72% 8.00%
Rough probability 1 in 43.1 1 in 15.8 1 in 21.2 1 in 12.5

April 6, 2017: Kripparian opens 1101 Journey to Un'Goro Packs[edit | edit source]

Sources: Twitch VOD (will eventually be deleted) - Raw data

  • The average card's dust value is 21.57 dust. The average pack's dust value is 107.86.
  • The data shows that golden Rares, all Epics, and all Legendary cards appear more frequently in Journey to Un'Goro when compared to the data in HearthSim's August 2015 study for The Grand Tournament.
  • The data shown here is somewhat similar to the data gathered during Whispers of the Old Gods, with the exception of golden Rares appearing more in Journey to Un'Goro than in Whispers of the Old Gods.
  • Data was recorded by watching the original Twitch VOD.
  • Refer to Kripp's YouTube channel for video footage of the card pack openings when the Twitch video eventually gets deleted.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.61% 22.52% 4.64% 1.24%
Regular 96.64% 70.14% 20.98% 4.40% 1.13%
Golden 3.36% 1.47% 1.54% 0.24% 0.11%
Count per 1101 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 3,942 1240 255 68
Regular 5,320 3,861 1155 242 62
Golden 185 81 85 13 6

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.05% 6.85% 5.10% 8.82%
Rough probability 1 in 48.8 1 in 14.6 1 in 19.6 1 in 11.3

April 8, 2017: N. Millar opens 1256 Journey to Un'Goro Packs[edit | edit source]

Sources: YouTube - Raw data

  • The average card's dust value is 20.88 dust. The average pack's dust value is 104.38.
  • Data was recorded by watching the YouTube video.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.29% 23.15% 4.51% 1.05%
Regular 96.50% 69.67% 21.67% 4.20% 0.96%
Golden 3.50% 1.62% 1.48% 0.30% 0.10%
Count per 1256 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 4,477 1,454 283 66
Regular 6,060 4,375 1,361 264 60
Golden 220 102 93 19 6

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.28% 6.40% 6.71% 9.09%
Rough probability 1 in 43.9 1 in 15.6 1 in 14.9 1 in 11.0

References[edit | edit source]

  1. Hearthstone Products - Card Packs - Battle.net. Retrieved on 2017-03-27.
  2. Sample pack opening images: 1 Legendary, 4 Commons, 2 Legendary, 2 Epic, 1 Common.
  3. Hearthstone Fireside Chat Goblins vs Gnomes. (2014-11-07). 
  4. Ben Brode on Twitter. (2014-12-04). 
  5. Ben Brode on Twitter. (2017-02-03). 
  6. Pity Tracker Guide. (2015-12-01). 
  7. Simulation run by User:Aegonostic, using the meta-study data from this article.
  8. Ben Brode on Twitter. (2015-12-21). 
  9. Hearthstone Packs Hypothesis for "Predetermined Rarity" - Reddit. (2017-01-19). Retrieved on 2017-01-19.
  10. China will force games with loot boxes to publicly expose their drop rates and probabilities - Reddit. (2016-12-08). Retrieved on 2017-01-19.
  11. 11.0 11.1 Pity Timer on Packs Opening analysis (Kinda proofed) - Reddit. (2016-01-03). 
  12. Continuing Info on Pity Timer - Reddit. (2016-01-06). 
  13. Calculated from this article's table by User:Aegonostic.
  14. The Grand Tournament Card Pack Opening - HearthSim. (2015-08-28). 
  15. http://kotaku.com/here-are-the-actual-hearthstone-legendary-card-drop-rat-1586156518
  16. Kjellgren data. (2016-08). 
  17. Kripp checks tri-class card amount. (2016-12-01).